KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — In no other season does rain effect bass fishing like it does in late winter and early spring. The reason why is water temperature. Warmer rains typical for the period raise the water temperature, while providing low light conditions conducive for feeding activity.
That’s the potential setup in the coming days at the Guaranteed Rate Bassmaster Elite at Tennessee River. Ideal conditions would have sustained warmer daytime highs and nighttime lows over a longer period during rainy periods. This week has seen only a short-term warming trend, with daytime highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. Those chilly nighttime lows offset the net gain in the daytime warming trend.
Even so, dark skies will prevail through Sunday. And by all accounts, bait fish activity is on the rise. Drew Cook couldn’t use a treble hook lure in some areas for hooking shad on every cast.
The forecast calls for between a 70% to 90% chance of rain, day and night, through weigh-in time on Championship Sunday. Friday’s daytime high will be 52; the nighttime low at 49. Saturday’s high will be 66; the nighttime low at 56. On Sunday the high will be 69 degrees.
Up to 5 inches of rain is in the forecast, adding another curious observation about the weather. How will it affect the water clarity for the largemouth bite? And what about current? There will be plenty of that, too, which will certainly influence the largemouth bite.
Sure, it takes several days for a warming trend to truly take effect. However, the Tennessee River bass sense a seasonal change and are on the verge of moving shallow. So subtle changes in the weather matter.
Sunny, clear skies and highs in the mid-60s gradually warmed up the water. On Thursday, some of the pockets had warmed into the low 50s. Shad and bass gravitated to those pockets where the dingy, shallow water retained warmth more than elsewhere. That was the scenario on Tellico and Loudoun lakes.
“Last night the overnight low was warmer than the water temperature,”
said John Crews, 3rd place with 13 pounds, 14 ounces. “Thursday will be the best fishing day we’ve had all week,”
The net gain with the warming up of the water during practice won’t be lost with the warmer temperatures to come with the approaching low-pressure system, he added.
Drew Cook, 20th with 10-1, caught his bass within a 30-minute window during bright, sunny conditions.
“Hopefully, with this weather they’ll bite all day,” said Cook. “We won’t get that spike in the warm-up with the sunny skies, but we gain more with the low-light conditions.”
That being the case, Cook expects a jerkbait bite to be productive as baitfish activity increases.
Ray Hanselman, 7th with 12 pounds, predicted he’d be capable of catching that weight during the tournament. His pattern was contingent on an afternoon bite when the water temperature was highest.
“I don’t know what it will do to my bite,” he said. “With so much bait in the area it might make it even better.”
During practice, Hanselman suspected the largemouth wanted to move from the main lake to feed, with a twist.
“The key is the water still is cold, so it’s likely their metabolism is still too slow to want to go chasing shad,” he added.
Hanselman noted that it takes warmer water to make the bass more active and trigger their inward migration to the spawning areas.
“My best day of the week was on Monday, during the heavy rain,” said Brock Mosley, 5th with 13 pounds. “We haven’t had any cloud cover since then, so there’s all the proof that I need to know how the weather will improve the bite.”
Mosely’s best bite came during the first couple hours of the day, due to the low light conditions. A lull in the bite resulted when the sun came up and lit up the water’s surface.
“I believe there won’t be that lull with the cloud cover,” he added.
“One thing you must do this week, under these conditions, and on this river, is keeping an open mind,” said Mosley.
Indeed, keeping an open mind will be a must through the remaining days of the tournament. All it take to understand why are the close weights, from top to bottom of the scoreboard.